Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the country and caused disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in universities but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that strive for impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
